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IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Weekly, Monthly, and Seasonal Averages. But, there are broad agreements and you can find some of the lists researchers have used along with how they chose those years. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western Pacific and westerly over most of the eastern Pacific. These plots give an indication of how similar and how different the atmosphere can be during events. Click on the for more information on each figure.

2019 May Quick Look

This is updated on the second Thursday of every month. Other seasons have impacts, too, but do not necessarily match the winter seasons. They have not been adjusted to anomalies with respect to a common base period. Values can be mean or anomalies.

It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in Fig. Below the third plot, we provide a mechanism for highlighting the forecasts of one model at a time against a background of more lightly colored lines for all other models.

ENSO Forecast Navigation

Animation showing average sea surface temperature anomalies over the past year. This figure is updated on the third Thursday of every month. Suppressed tropical convection was evident near Indonesia and enhanced convection continued near the Date Line, though weaker compared to the last two months Fig.

El Ni o & La Ni a (El Ni o-Southern Oscillation)

In particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the total range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models. The plots allow comparison of plumes from the previous start times, or examination of the forecast behavior of a given model over time. Each of the forecasts is weighted equally. Forecasters try to take all this in account when making predictions. One possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases.

Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. Forecasters are encouraged to use the standard period as the base period, or a period not very different from it. Ecosystems are also at risk, for example corals may become bleached by distress from unusually warm ocean temperatures. Subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive close to the surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, surveying basics pdf but were increasingly negative at depth Fig.

It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. Click on image to enlarge.


The cyclic warming and cooling of the eastern and central Pacific can be seen in the sea level pressure in the region. The charts on this Quick Look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third Thursday of the month, the official forecast Fig.

Understanding the processes driving these types of interactions is a key component in improving forecasts and warnings. These warmer or cooler than normal ocean temperatures can affect weather patterns around the world by influencing high and low pressure systems, winds, and precipitation. The anomalies shown are those with respect to the base period used to define the normals, which vary among the groups producing model forecasts. Different datasets use different models to fill in gaps.

The first plot shows forecasts for dynamical models, the second for statistical models, and the third for all models. However, occasionally they may differ noticeably. The average of the forecasts of the dynamical models is shown by the thick yellow line, and of the statistical models by the thick green line.

It is updated near or just after the middle of the month, using forecasts from the plume models that are run in the first half of the month. This information can help keep communities safe and guide decisions related to issues such as water management, emergency planning, and ecosystem resilience. The subsurface sea temperature anomalies remain positive but have weakened considerably from those of a month ago. Resources and Additional Information.

The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. However, model predictions made during the spring tend to be less accurate relative to the rest of the year, so uncertainty remains whether this outcome will occur. Low-level wind anomalies were weak over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with easterly anomalies evident over the western Pacific. This is updated on the third Thursday of the month.

ESRL PSD ENSO Information

It does not use any human interpretation or judgment. Because forecasts from some of the models shown in Fig. For less difficult readability, forecasts are shown to a maximum of only the first five lead times. Time-series plots and latest values of the indices are also available. Only models producing forecasts on a monthly basis are included.

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